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The Ugliness of Privacy Notices
So going forward, companies signing exclusivity deals will have to keep in mind that some small fraction of their customers will hack their products and use them in ways not envisioned by the deal. But in the grand scheme of things, those people are little more than rounding error.
If these hacks can be made into a commercial download the real effect will be seen in the international market. I think you're right that most people just don't see a difference in the carriers here, but for people in Europe who don't have an iPhone carrier yet. Using a bit of unlocking software for $40 or $50 is a small price to have the gadget 6 months or a year before your peers.
It may not be too late for them to shore-up exclusivity by requiring hardware and service purchases to be simultaneous, and by not offering pre-paid service plans for the iPhone. A service contract requires identity and credit verification, and therefore would make it impractical and expensive to amass a substantial number of iPhones for exportation to the international market.
Lock-in might still work if there is an existing cheap product in the category, and the locked-in product/service combination just gets you a better overall customer experience than you would get by spending the same money up front for a cheap product without service. Many of the marginal hackers would go for the cheap product instead of taking the risk of "bricking" the locked-in product.