Re: Newspaper Deathwatch?

Adam_Thierer — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 10:08:49 -0000

Wow, E.W. Scripps says second-quarter profit fell 48 percent...

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/business/AP-Ear...

Re: Newspaper Deathwatch?

Adam_Thierer — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 22:32:48 -0000

Alan... The market cap valuation in that bubble chart is as of January. We haven't updated it recently but I plant to try to do so again soon.

Re: Newspaper Deathwatch?

Alan Mutter — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 16:16:24 -0000

Great post. I love grid comparing the valuation bubbles of newspapers and Google but you need to fix the SSP valuation. It really is about $500M, not the $1.5B erroneously reported by some websites that failed to take into account he 3-for-1 reverse stock split last week. If you update the graphic, please let me know and I will try to link to it next time I write about this stuff. Thanks. adm

Re: Newspaper Deathwatch?

eee_eff — Sun, 20 Jul 2008 13:27:29 -0000

Hi Adam, I am back from vacation!

Two questions:

1. From the newspaper circulation chart, it seems that there was an inflection point in the number of daily newspapers around 1980. The circulation drop off started a little later (about 1991). Those dates both seem a little earlier to be ascribed to the growth of the internet--so to what to you ascribes those drop-offs?

2. I wonder if you have an opinion on the newspapers as not for profit phenomena/trend I'd remarked upon earlier in several posts. That phenomena would address almost all of your concerns, as follows:

* loss of protected markets or “protected scarcity” = there’s just no guaranteed audience anymore
Interesting effect here: this will result in non-profit newspapers being be judged qualitatively, not quantitatively. Patrons/those who manage the foundations will be empowered, but the connectivity of the newspapers will equal their relevance, so that qualitative judgment can not happen in a vacuum

* rapid technological change = the way media is created and transmitted has been completely transformed
These not for profits will not have any problem with these--a web presence will be to their benefit, to reduce costs.

* massive inflow of new competitors / platforms = no way to stop the deluge of new voices, including user-generated contentPlatforms are not a problem-perhaps the deluge/information overload is, but as a not for profit, with ostensibly public spirited goals, these entities should be able to make connections.

* loss of consumer confidence and allegiance = people have plenty of other places to turn their attention
Branding of non-profits, intelligently done, can overcome this.
* loss of advertiser confidence and allegiance = advertisers have plenty of other places to promote their goods and services (including direct-to-consumer appeals and ‘word-of-mouth’ marketing efforts)
This process is good for not for profits--it increases the burdens on their competitors as they lose market share

* loss of investor confidence and allegiance = shareholders have lots of other places to invest their capital today Those who donate to non-profit newspapers will be seen a public spirited philanthropists, and the less strings they attach the more public spirited they will seem; the non-profits will encourage this by maintaining transparency of their operations, including fund raising. The transparency meme will defang non-public spirited special interest groups.

Cheers!

e_f

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